Pro Bolivia

Introduction

Good evening, everyone. Welcome to a new episode of Presente Bolivia. We thank Café del Parlamento for its welcoming venue and for always bringing something fresh. We’re less than 200 meters from a Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) arcista event, where the Luis Arce-Daisy Choque ticket will be proclaimed. Today, joined by our special and recurring guests, we’ll analyze the political events of the past two weeks after a brief hiatus due to technical issues. Thank you for joining us in this space, right across from the Legislative Assembly and the Casa Grande del Pueblo—the perfect place to discuss Bolivian politics!

Guest Introductions

The host welcomed the panelists, who return after a pause:

• Guest 1: “It’s a pleasure to be back on Presente Bolivia. Thank you for the invitation. These past two weeks have shaken national politics, people’s expectations, and hopes. We’ll try to reflect that in our analysis.”

• Guest 2 (Tupac): “Good evening to all our viewers. We were absent due to technical issues, but we’re back in an ideal spot, facing political power. What better place to analyze Bolivian politics?”

Political Context: The Past Two Weeks

The host noted that politics is “the art of the possible” and that the past two weeks have been eventful. He introduced the main topic: Andrónico Rodríguez’s candidacy, now unlikely with MAS but possibly with Movimiento Tercer Sistema, and posed key questions:

• What does Andrónico Rodríguez represent for Bolivia’s left?

• Can he be a unifying factor for the popular bloc?

• Why is his candidacy shifting away from MAS to Movimiento Tercer Sistema?

Analysis: The Rise of Andrónico Rodríguez

The panelists discussed Andrónico’s political growth and potential as a renewing leader:

• Independent Growth:

• Andrónico’s rise hasn’t relied on major campaigns or direct support from Evo Morales or Luis Arce.

• Polls from 2023-2024 gave him 8-12% voter intention, but recent months show his support doubling or tripling.

• He represents renewal within MAS, distancing himself from the evista (Morales) and arcista (Arce) factions.

• His team aims to position him as a rescuer of the popular bloc, free from outdated political logics.

• Ethnic and Youthful Renewal (Tupac):

• Andrónico embodies a reinterpretation of the indigenous world from the perspective of the younger generation, raised under Evo Morales’s government.

• He’s a unifying factor due to his youth, militancy in the process of change, resistance during the 2019 coup, and presence in diverse regions (Aymara Altiplano, northern Potosí, Cochabamba valleys).

• His potential lies in politicizing ethnicity, not just with a youth narrative, but by emphasizing the struggle, organization, and hope of young indigenous people.

• MAS has abandoned its ethnic discourse (e.g., “the wiphala is respected”) for a nationalist, industrialist focus, pushing Andrónico away from the party.

• Break with MAS:

• Sources indicate Andrónico will run for president with Movimiento Tercer Sistema, not MAS, to avoid the party’s “heavy baggage” (corruption, division).

• His claim that “the process has failed” critiques both evista and arcista factions, reinforcing his renewal image.

• Aligning with MAS, which is proclaiming the Arce-Choque ticket, could tarnish his change narrative.

Andrónico vs. Evo Morales: A New Dynamic

The panelists analyzed the relationship between Andrónico and Evo Morales, highlighting his organic leadership:

• Organic Victory:

• Andrónico is the first leader to surpass Evo from the grassroots, gaining support from organizations previously loyal to Morales.

• In 2020, grassroots proposed the Choquehuanca-Andrónico ticket, but a “phone call” relegated him to the Senate, where he later became president.

• During the 2019 crisis and pandemic, Andrónico emerged as a leader in the Chapare, El Alto, and other regions, while Evo’s influence waned.

• Loss of Evista Bases:

• The Cochabamba tropics no longer predominantly support Evo, and his influence in Potosí, Santa Cruz, Beni, or Pando has declined.

• Evo’s disqualification by the Plurinational Constitutional Tribunal (TCP) has driven evista sectors toward Andrónico, especially post-proscription.

• Distinct Structures:

• Andrónico leads the Aymara structure (Tupac Katari, 20 provinces in La Paz, with influence in Pando, Santa Cruz, Oruro, Potosí).

• Evo retains Quechua support (Cochabamba, Chuquisaca, Tarija, Chapare) but is confined to the tropics, losing mobilization capacity.

• Andrónico has organized sectors Evo couldn’t unify, especially after six months of isolation.

Debate: Is Andrónico an Indigenous or Popular Leader?

The panelists debated whether Andrónico represents indigenous identity or a broader leadership:

• Multicultural Perspective:

• Bolivia is multiclass: indigenous, periurban, urban, peasant, worker, miner. Andrónico channels demands from diverse sectors, not just indigenous ones.

• Miners, for instance, have a distinct cultural identity (e.g., worship of the Tío), not necessarily indigenous.

• Indigenous identity has lost relevance to the “popular,” which blends classes and urban/periurban contexts.

• Reinterpretation of Indigenous Identity (Tupac):

• The younger generation, raised under Evo, reinterprets indigenous identity as a cultural root, not a rural lifestyle. Example: El Alto youth say, “I’m not indigenous, but I’m of indigenous roots, so I defend the wiphala.”

• The 2019 wiphala burning mobilized young people outraged by racism, showing an urban indigenous identity.

• Leaders like David Mamani (Tupac Katari, sociologist) represent professional indigenous cadres, reflected in Andrónico.

• Social Change:

• Social conditions have transformed identity. The educated, urbanized periurban middle class supports Andrónico for his identitarian vote, not strictly indigenous.

• Syndicalism and labor movements have waned compared to new activism forms (e.g., social media), reflecting a globalized society.

• Indigenous identity dilutes in a context of mestizaje and internationalized cultural consumption, making Andrónico a more “popular” than ethnic leader.

Relationship with Other Political Actors

Andrónico shows unusual openness to diverse sectors:

• National and International Contacts:

• He has engaged with Marcelo Claure, Ronald MacLean, and social-democratic sectors in Spain, demonstrating political breadth.

• Claure called him the “best leader” for Bolivia’s opposition, highlighting his versatility.

• Risk of Abandoning Ethnicity:

• Some fear his ties to non-indigenous sectors (e.g., Claure) could distance him from the process of change, leaning toward neoliberal stances.

• Others believe his Aymara connections will strengthen the process’s deepening, not its abandonment.

Conclusion: Does Andrónico Represent Renewal or Deepening?

The host closed with a pointed question, and panelists gave brief responses:

• Guest 1: “Andrónico can represent renewal, not necessarily in the economic model, but in political structures, causing a major stir.”

• Tupac: “He can represent renewal and deepening, reinterpreting indigenous identity and leading from youth.”

Host: “Andrónico represents renewal, especially in political figures, retiring leaders of the past 20 years.”