Organized by El Bunker
A visual and analytical comparison of the most significant changes between two historic rounds

Introduction

The “People’s Primaries” organized by El Bunker have emerged as a key civic tool for gauging presidential hopefuls’ popularity ahead of Bolivia’s 2025 elections. In the absence of formal party primaries, this citizen-led initiative has mobilized tens of thousands of voters both inside and outside the country.

This article compares results from the Second Primaries to those of the Third, highlighting notable changes per candidate and department, along with trends in the overseas vote.

National Totals Comparison

• Total Participation:
  
  

• Second Primary: 707,976 votes
  
  

• Third Primary: 816,173 votes
  📈 A 15.2% increase in overall participation
  
  

• Top gains in vote count:
  
  

• Jaime Dunn: +79,742 votes
  
  

• Tuto Quiroga: +65,019 votes
  
  

• Manfred Reyes Villa: +64,642 votes
  
  

• Only candidate to lose support:
  
  

• Samuel Doria Medina: −21,197 votes
  
  

The electorate clearly realigned its preferences toward the top three candidates.

Department-by-Department Comparison

 Santa Cruz

• Tuto Quiroga rises from 79,901 to 101,462 votes
  
  

• Reyes Villa also gains significantly
  
  

• Jaime Dunn quintuples his support
  
  

 La Paz

• Jaime Dunn triples his vote total
  
  

• Samuel Doria Medina loses support
  
  

• Quiroga and Reyes Villa hold steady
  
  

 Cochabamba

• All major candidates increase their support
  
  

• Reyes Villa and Quiroga both surpass 50,000 votes
  
  

 Tarija

• Dunn doubles his votes
  
  

• Medina loses nearly 6,000 votes
  
  

 Potosí

• All candidates drop except Dunn, who nearly doubles his count
  
  

• Reyes Villa loses around 10,000 votes
  
  

 Chuquisaca

• Reyes Villa and Quiroga gain votes
  
  

• Dunn sees a strong rise in support
  
  

 Oruro

• General decrease across the board
  
  

• Dunn remains the top vote-getter
  
  

 Beni

• Declines for most candidates, except Dunn
  
  

• Medina drops by about 1,400 votes
  
  

 Pando

• Quiroga and Reyes Villa double their votes
  
  

• Jaime Dunn loses almost 800 votes
  
  

Overseas Vote (Expats)

• Tuto Quiroga skyrockets: from 13,789 to 29,499 votes
  
  

• Reyes Villa also rises: from 15,783 to 21,734
  
  

• Dunn and Medina remain relatively stable
  
  

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Conclusions

1. Jaime Dunn’s exponential growth signals a possible turning point in his visibility or campaign strategy.
   
   

2. Tuto Quiroga strengthens his dominance abroad and in the eastern lowlands.
   
   

3. Manfred Reyes Villa remains strong across Bolivia’s core regions.
   
   

4. Samuel Doria Medina suffers setbacks across most regions.
   
   

📌 These results suggest the fourth primary will be even more competitive. Tracking these evolving trends is essential to understand voter behaviour leading into 2025.